Sunday, July 23, 2006

Can India learn from Lebanon ???

Parallels are being drawn between the Lebanon-Israel conflict and the situation that has always existed between India and her neighbour.There are many temptations for the Indian government to try to consider the situation as a prototype for solving its own problem of cross-border terrorism.However, any such action has a number of setbacks in store for India. It may be proper to say that the recent bomb-blasts of the economic centre of India could be reason enough for her to come up with a resolve to settle the situation for once and for all, but the issue is not as simple as it may look like. There are a number of factors that govern the way India and Pakistan look at this.

The political outlook of both the countries is different and is highly respected in either of the nations. The people of both the countries identify their land by the way it acts in situations of crisis and emergency. Then there is the big international community which expects both the nations to behave in the way they have been doing in the past! A drastic contradiction in the policies of the past and the present may lead to heavy loss in terms of international support to both the countries. There may even spring up various nations that may come out in support of either of the nations igniting a catastrophic situation.

The social structure of both the nations is clearly reflected in the way their policy making bodies work. In India for instance it would be really hard to convince the people that any strong action is necessary, the way it was done in the USA by the Bush administration. A feeling of extreme insecurity would clearly stand as a known illusion because there is not much to boast-off about in terms of how secure India is(a recent survey-cum-poll gave India a 6th stand in the list of countries being most unsafe for children). Extremist action is often shunned in our country so, a lot of explanation would be required and no political establishment would want to run in such dirty waters and hamper its chances in the next elections.

If any extreme step is taken by the Indian defence, Pakistan cannot be expected to act in a way similar to Lebanon. The Pakistani defence would instantaneously become active and join the terror establishments that it already supports, though under covers. It would mean a proper war and would not be limited to the border areas as both the nations have rather good striking capabilities. For much more densely populated nations like ours any action that crosses the border areas could spell disaster with unimaginable casualities besides a ruptured infrastructure. Clearly none of the nations would want that.

Specially for India, there is a big financial boon around for quite sometime now. The foreign investments have not ceased to flow-in giving a never before stability to the economy. It is far better for India to counter such rare(though rapidly increasing in frequency) attacks rather than to go in all out and kill its progress completely.

Clearly, neither of the nations would want to initiate any dramatic move at this point of time. As far as Mr.Musharaf is concerned, it is a win-win situation for him and his administration. He can come out openly in support of India in her war against terrorism while still sit comfortably enough knowing that his countrymen love him for doing what he ought to do, that is, do nothing to make any substantial effect on the progress of India's cause!

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